News Roundup - Have a Happy Halloween!
I’m happy to announce that as of October 29th, one more course for my MBA is behind me. It wasn’t my favorite class, but I learned quite a bit nonetheless. I’m fortunate enough to work for a company with an extremely generous tuition reimbursement program and a few months ago when it looked like the economy was really going to go from “slowing down” to “total digger,” I figured it would be wise to add a few letters to my resume. It adds quite a bit to my days but in the long term, I believe education is always a good investment. Are there any classes you could take to flesh out your skills?
Anyhoo, since this week has been a blur, I thought I might do a little roundup of recent economic news …
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve dropped its key interest rate, the federal funds rate by half a point, bring it to one percent. That probably won’t do much to regular mortgage rates but if you have a variable rate HELOC, you should see your rates drop. The reaction in the stock market was underwhelming, and will remain so until credit markets actually loosen up - in other words, interest rates are somewhat irrelevant if nobody can get a loan. On the other hand, for entities who use very short term loan products or for existing variable rate loans, it’s helpful.
Ohio, Michigan, Kentucky, New York, Delaware and South Dakota have asked for bailout money for the automotive industry. Vehicle purchases are down significantly (see above), and automakers say that the industry is basically too big to fail because the industry directly and indirectly employs over five million Americans.
Financial firms at the heart of the derivatives and housing meltdown will still pay out nearly $20 billion in bonuses this year. According to Bloomberg,
Five straight quarters of losses and a 70 percent slide in its stock this year haven’t stopped Merrill Lynch & Co. from allocating about $6.7 billion to pay bonuses.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley, both still on track for profitable years, have set aside about $13 billion for bonuses after three quarters, down 28 percent from a year ago. Even some employees at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., which declared the biggest bankruptcy in U.S. history last month, will get the same bonus they received a year ago.
The bonuses will mostly go to top performers, with lower level employees taking large cuts, and the numbers are huge. Goldman Sachs had set aside an average of about $210,000 per employee. Since the receptionists and assistants aren’t going to get that, it means that the higher-ups are going to get bonuses in the millions. During the four years between 2003 and 2007, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merrill, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns paid out almost $140 billion in bonuses.
Alan Greenspan testified before Congress this week. He would like us all to know that it’s bothered him quite a bit that the financial industry did not behave the way he had hoped. It turns out that the financial industry didn’t have some big self-correcting mechanism that would kick in when things got out of balance. His belief in a free market with as little regulation as possible turned out not to produce an industry that would maintain sound practices in order to preserve shareholder equity, but a criminally predatory industry that rewarded its employees and left shareholders and taxpayers to clean up the mess.
Democrats are pushing for another stimulus package to the tune of $150 billion, and current Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is all for it. He still won’t admit that the economy is in a recession, though, which seems to be an extraordinary display of denial. A stimulus would not probably be in the form of another rebate check but rather an investment in infrastructure projects that are both desperately needed and would provide jobs. Republicans are not excited about the idea and believe that making Bush’s tax cuts permanent is the better route to take because it would encourage investment. More of that self-correcting mechanism that would lead to the wealthy investing in bonds that would provide those infrastructure projects, no doubt, instead of investing in underpriced stocks and leaving that money essentially off the table for any kind of real growth.
Crude oil bounced around the $60 level and gas prices US fuel demand fell 7.8% compared to the same period a year ago. OPEC agreed to cut oil production by one and a half million barrels per day, and gasoline prices averaged $2.50 a gallon on October 30th, compared $3.58 per gallon just one month ago.
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